Methodology description for Environmental and energy impacts:
Considering the specificities of starter cities (cities where the use of bicycles as a means of transport is residual) we adopted the following methodology to estimate the economic impacts based on the potential for cycling in Portuguese municipalities:
· CO2 emissions Costs of (€)
· Fuel consumption costs (€)
· Air quality costs (€)
Based on:
• 2011 Census - Resident population by main mean of transport and according to the journey length from place of residence to place of work or study
• Vehicle occupancy rate1
• Travel by means of transport (Pop. Resident / Occupancy Rate) multiplied by 2 assuming two trips per day (one way / home / work)
• Modal split (Pop. Resident by means of transport / Total Pop. Resident)
• Average speed of different transportation modes2
• Average travel time by means of transport
• Average distance traveled (based on Census 2011)
• Average distance traveled: Average time for the average speed by means of transport (Km / h).
For the categories:
- Car as a driver and car as a passenger a weighted average was calculated
- Bus and public transport (company or school) a weighted average was calculated
The train was not considered, as it is not an alternative to cycling.
• Average consumption (liter per km traveled)1
• Number of liters compared to the kilometers traveled (distribution of the average distance per fuel per average fuel consumption).
To calculate the value of CO2 Emissions(by total trips and by type of fuel) the methodology adopted was based on the following conversion factors3:
| kgCO2e/tep | 1000l/t | tep/t | |
| Diesel | 3098,2 | 0.835 | 1,045 |
| Gasoline | 2897,3 | 0.72 | 1,14 |
1 - Fuel consumption in relation to the kilometers traveled by individual motorized transport/year
Type of fuel
Average consumption (l / 100km)
Distance (km)
Consumption (l)
2 - Fuel in tons
Conversion factor (1000l / t)
Nº tons (t)
3 - Convert to tons of oil equivalent (toe)
Conversion factor (toe / t)
Nº of tons of oil equivalent (toe)
4 - Calculate the CO2eq. emissions
Conversion factor (kg CO2 / toe)
CO2 eq. emitted (kg CO2eq.)
5 - Cost of CO2 emissions per trip (€ / tonne CO2)
To calculate the cost of Fuel Consumption:
Diesel Value = 1.43 €
Gasoline Value = 1.55 €
1. Fuel price X number of liters consumed compared to the kilometers traveled.
2. Value of fuel consumption in € per trip X trips by means of transport.
To calculate the cost of Air Pollution:
Air pollution price (€ / 1000 pkm)
1. Air pollution price X average distance traveled per trip
2. Pollution cost per trip X for trips by means of transport.
ITDP scenario
For the ITDP Scenario4, that establishes an increase of 0.2 percentage points per year (representing a 2.02% increase of cycling modal share in 10 years), the modal distribution by means of transport was recalculated, assuming that the increase bicycle use represents5:
- 20% walking
- 30% use of individual motorized transport (car and motorcycle)
- 50% use of public transport (bus and metro)
From here, the number of trips by means of transport were recalculated and the respective costs of CO2 emissions; Fuel consumption and Air Quality, which allows us to understand the differential in costs caused by the increase of cycling between 2011 and 2021.
For the commuting costs (residence / work place or study / residence) per day, two daily trips were assumed.
For the commuting costs (residence / place of work or study / residence) per capita it was assumed: costs of daily commuting / resident population employed or student
For the commuting annual costs (residence / place of work or study / residence), 252 working days per year were assumed.
References
1 Carvalho, J. (coord). (2013). Ocupação Dispersa Custos e Benefícios, à Escala Local. Direção-Geral do Território. Avaiable at: http://www.ordenaracidade.pt/trabalhos/ocupac-o-dispersa-custos-e-beneficios-a-escala-local/
2 Estabelecida com base em:
Costa, A. (2008). Transportes Públicos. Manual de Planeamento Das Acessibilidades e Da Gestão Viária, 13. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004 Vale, D. S. (2017). A cidade e a bicicleta : uma leitura analítica. Finisterra, 51(103), 45–66.
https://doi.org/10.18055/Finis7077Marqués, R., Hernández-Herrador, V., Calvo-Salazar, M., & García-Cebrián, J. A. (2015). How infrastructure can promote cycling in cities: Lessons from Seville. Research in Transportation Economics, 53, 31–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2015.10.017
3 IMTT. (2016). Plano de Monitorização - U-Bike.4McDonald, Z., Fulton, L., & Mason, J. (2015). A Global High Shift Scenario: The Potential for Dramatically Increasing Bicycle and E-bike Use in Cities Around the World, with Estimated Energy, CO2, and Cost Impacts. In International Journal for Sustainable Transportation (Issue November). https://www.itdp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/A-Global-High-Shift-Cycling-Scenario_Nov-2015.pdf
5Marqués, R., Hernández-Herrador, V., Calvo-Salazar, M., & García-Cebrián, J. A. (2015). How infrastructure can promote cycling in cities: Lessons from Seville. Research in Transportation Economics, 53, 31–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2015.10.017
https://www.heatwalkingcycling.org/#userguide